A decade after the attacks on the World Trade Centre, the Middle East remains in considerable political turmoil. Much of this turmoil has erupted from the events of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ but there are deeper undercurrents in play as well.
The power and force projection capability of the U.S. has been damaged by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Coupled to a huge national debt, rising unemployment and an increasingly U.S.– centric political focus in the run up to the 2012 elections, some countries are taking the opportunity to vent their wrath against a traditional target: Israel.
As we write, the Israeli Embassy in Cairo is burning, and the Ambassador has had to escape to Israel in a military jet. Last week we saw the catastrophic collapse of Turkish-Israeli political relationships, a collapse so profound that the Turkish Government have stated they may send their navy as escort vessels for future maritime convoys to Gaza.
Finally, this month, the Palestinians are likely to ask the U.N. for recognition as an independent state. The U.S. has already said it will veto this move.
However, the Secretary General of the U.N. was quoted on Friday September 9 by the French news agency AFP saying he fully supported Palestinian statehood: “The two state vision where Israel and Palestinians can live… side by side in peace and security — that is a still a valid vision and I fully support it. And I support also the statehood of Palestinians; an independent, sovereign state of Palestine. It has been long overdue.”
Secretary General Ban told reporters in Canberra that a “recognition of a state is something to be determined by the member states.”
The veto by the U.S. is likely further to fuel the fires of regional anger at both Israel and the U.S. and we believe has the potential to increase the threat to U.S. citizens and businesses across the Middle East but also North Africa and South East Asia.
We therefore recommend that U.S. individuals and businesses operating in these volatile areas take particular care over the next few days.