Multiple sources, continuous threats, and formal indicators and warnings suggest an eventual devastating cyberattack against US and Western critical infrastructure is highly likely. Though the origin, date, and method of a future attack are unknown, public and private sector leaders should regard the threat as real, with a potential impact that would be far-reaching and expensive.
According to modern germ theory, the cause of many diseases can be traced to certain microorganisms that may be present within the body. Although first proposed in the 17th century, the theory did not gain wide acceptance until almost two hundred years later. (Similar to geopolitical analysts, doctors don't quickly warm to the idea that their theories might be wrong.) Subject to the next paradigm shift in medical science, it continues to serve as a universal model of modern medicine...
The Israeli electorate produced a complicated election outcome that will make forming a stable coalition government highly difficult, but not impossible. Paradoxically, in a best case scenario, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing party list losing parliamentary seats to center-moderate parties, this may make it easier for the country’s socioeconomic problems to be tackled in a serious manner, including creating new momentum for the currently stalled peace process with the Palestinians...
Unrest will continue to percolate in the Gulf states, but will not lead to the overthrow of regional governments. At the same time, the US will carry on its quiet diplomacy designed to persuade Gulf countries to adhere to international human rights standards, but will refrain from open breaches with these governments over these issues.
This is the first in a series of IntelBriefs that will explore long-standing foreign policy tactics used by the United States (and often by the international community as well) to force specific changes in a target country. Such tactics - in effect, the tools of the geopolitical trade - have become nearly reflexive in practice, but rarely reexamined in light of practical results...