We are increasingly concerned that the fragile power-sharing agreement brokered over many months is on its last legs, and we may be on the point of seeing what in effect could become a political coup...
Even before the dust has settled on the Bab al-Aziziya - where fighting continues despite the apparent flight of Ghaddafi to an uncertain future - the entrepreneurial nations are circling. Both Turkey and Italy have made their intentions plain in the last 24 hours, and we have noticed China rapidly recalibrating its language now it is clear that the fighters of the National Transitional Council paid no attention whatsoever to the calls to resolve the crisis through dialogue. The post-Ghaddafi era will see significant changes and rebalancing of relationships - both economic, political and military - and we start here to examine some potential outcomes, as well as identify possible winners and losers as a result of the conflict...
The recent period of relative quiet in Iraq was clearly the calm before the storm, rather than any kind of improvement in security, and will give rise to important questions about the Iraqis ability to manage internal security. This in turn will have a knock-on effect on investor confidence at a time when Iraq urgently needs international commitment...
Events on the ground in Libya are moving extremely fast, and the situation remains extremely volatile. Even Ghaddafi loyalists are jumping from a sinking ship: according to the Kuwait News Agency, Libya's ambassador to Kuwait, Muhammad al-Mubarak, has said he is defecting to the rebels. Al-Mubarak said the "Libyan embassy in Kuwait will operate from today as a representative of Libya's National Transitional Council..."
The already sensitive geopolitical and socio-economic relationships between the U.S., China, Pakistan and Israel are about to become even more complex...