Just as it is analytically perilous to unconsciously deduce that "I can't imagine it so therefore it is not possible," so it is analytically perilous to deduce "I can imagine it so therefore it is certain." The deliberate or unconscious decision to treat highly unlikely events as certainties because of their possible devastating effects is not, as one would assume, the result of an imagination running wild but instead the result of an imagination running to one distant spot and then stopping...
Policy formulation based on such approaches as the "analyst-based analysis" and the "one-percent doctrine" occupy the two extremes of a probability scale, with a more accurate and effective approach being one that properly merges experience with imagination...
Once close allies, Turkey's Justice and Development Party government, led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has repeatedly called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and has provided the Syrian opposition with support. Meanwhile, fighting in Syria has moved closer to the Turkish border, raising fears of yet another flood of refugees.
The illicit small arms trade continues to generate serious consequences for security, human rights and both social and economic development, particularly in areas of conflict. Conflicts fueled by imported weapons have been estimated to cost Africa alone at least US $18 billion a year...
The regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad is unlikely to be in power at the end of 2012. Defections and rebel action have begun to erode the inner core of leadership and to neutralize the Syrian military's main advantage - control over heavy weapons...