The Scottish phrase, "auld lang syne," can be translated as, "times gone by." In every conventional sense reflecting on such times involves thoughts about what has already occurred. For policymakers wishing to shape plans and strategies for addressing the complexities of today's geopolitical landscape, spending time considering the potential events of the coming year from the perspective of the year's end might prove of considerable value. In today's IntelBrief we offer a model of completing just such a reflective analysis of potential future events...
Iran is working methodically, deliberately, and quietly to increase its influence in Latin America and the Caribbean in an effort to circumvent international sanctions, strengthen its strategic influence, and find new markets for exports and commercial development...
The geopolitical equations that explain events, crises, and transformations on the global stage reflect a range of mathematical branches. Often, it is calculus, where the various organizational functions and derivative personalities can become decidedly complex. In other instances it can involve algebra, where an understanding of the geographic, political, economic, diplomatic, and military variables is key to solving the most complicated policy challenges...
The riots and demonstrations in the West Band - and the upsurge in violence - are part of an array of critical early warning indicators that point to a potential eruption of a new Palestinian intifada in the West Bank...
Decisions by Iran's Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i, will be key to any negotiated solutions between Iran and the international community. The Supreme Leader seeks to ensure that any settlement not foreclose Iran's option to develop a nuclear weapon at some point in the future. His firm line against intrusive international inspections - which he believes are a cover for intelligence collection and regime change operations - is likely to complicate settlement efforts...