As the military drawdown from Afghanistan gathers pace, the international community hopes to build regional prosperity through the Silk Road, which would link countries in South and Central Asia. This project has the potential to boost both regional trade and investment...
Analytic imagination is not about guessing whether this or that will happen; instead, it's about positioning oneself properly when or if this or that happens. If analysts spent as much time assessing how to position their public or private sector enterprise to take full advantage of a potentially constructive opportunity as they do in diligently fortifying against a potential adversity, policymakers would be presented with a far different — and far more profitable — foundation upon which to base key decisions...
For the first time, Japan's annual defense white paper publicly raises concerns about the nature of civil-military relations in China, especially about the People's Liberation Army's increasing - and more open - commentary on a broader range of national sovereignty and maritime issues...
The debate in Ethiopia following the death of the long-standing prime minister, Meles Zenawi, is likely to focus on whether his successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, can hold together the patchwork Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. There could be an increase in ethnic, religious and intra-regional tensions, and pro-democracy supporters could see this as an opportunity...
Just as it is analytically perilous to unconsciously deduce that "I can't imagine it so therefore it is not possible," so it is analytically perilous to deduce "I can imagine it so therefore it is certain." The deliberate or unconscious decision to treat highly unlikely events as certainties because of their possible devastating effects is not, as one would assume, the result of an imagination running wild but instead the result of an imagination running to one distant spot and then stopping...