The entangled nature of regional economies, regional conflicts and global attention has been the death of conventional strategy due primarily to the fact that the strategic process remains mired in an outdated definition of national interest.
Given the attraction of expanding economies and deep pockets of natural resources, business travel is on the rise across Africa and is likely to increase in the years ahead. Individual countries present a nuanced set of risks, but there are a number of emerging trends across the region, including an increasing terrorism threat, ongoing issues of regime instability and seasonal infectious diseases...
The label "al-Qaeda" continues to evoke an array of lingering reactions. Terror franchises, for example, have sought some manner of connection in the pursuit of prestige and recruitment power, while policymakers routinely reference the term with awareness of its potency in influencing decisions, though often unwitting of its imprecision. The tendency to make a monolith where it never existed continues unabated...
Israel is unlikely to conduct an air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities prior to the U.S. presidential election. However, the odds of eventual Israeli action increase as sanctions and diplomacy fail to produce a satisfactory Iranian compromise.
From cyber attacks to counterinsurgency, there are inescapable risks - the boomerang effect - to asymmetric tactics that introduce weapons and skills into poorly controlled arenas. Both old rifles and new malware are increasingly being aimed against the providers of the guns and designers of the code...