The TSG view of Egypt is that it has a government without a strategy, and a people without leadership. Following the February revolution, in crude terms SCAF could be characterised as trying to please all the people all the time - by being the independent guarantor of the rights of the Egyptian people in the face of a collapsed dictatorship. However, that has deteriorated over time to where we are now - with SCAF now pleasing only some of the people some of the time.
The effective management of the oil and gas sector is an issue of Iraqi national survival and development, as well as of global economic interest; politics is an issue for the political survival of Prime Minister (PM) al-Maliki who continues to be beset by problems, which are growing.
The Soufan Group has been tracking an extraordinary sequence of meetings, which clearly underline the deep concern amongst Iraqi politicians that they are reaching a tipping point...
We are increasingly concerned that the fragile power-sharing agreement brokered over many months is on its last legs, and we may be on the point of seeing what in effect could become a political coup...
Even before the dust has settled on the Bab al-Aziziya - where fighting continues despite the apparent flight of Ghaddafi to an uncertain future - the entrepreneurial nations are circling. Both Turkey and Italy have made their intentions plain in the last 24 hours, and we have noticed China rapidly recalibrating its language now it is clear that the fighters of the National Transitional Council paid no attention whatsoever to the calls to resolve the crisis through dialogue. The post-Ghaddafi era will see significant changes and rebalancing of relationships - both economic, political and military - and we start here to examine some potential outcomes, as well as identify possible winners and losers as a result of the conflict...